I don't think it's any of your four choices. Rather, it's option 5, which is "The vaccine isn't 100% effective, similar to the annual flu vaccine. It significantly reduces the chances of contracting the earlier strains of COVID, but is a lot less helpful for newer strains."
So stressful. I've already had two airlines cancel on me (and I've had to dispute with my credit card to get a refund for both), I've had a terrible time with the Thailand Pass, and had to pay an agent EACH TIME the airline cancelled.
Now my third set of tickets will just be money flushed down the toilet for sure, and my SHA++ hotel as well if they do this! Also, my Thai wife won't get to see her family. What a mess if this actually happens, and during peak season for economic recovery!
It's stupid. Are they planning to stop Omicron completely from entering the country? The Thai government tanked the economy for two years to keep the other strains out and COVID still came anyway.