it sounds like you’re saying you’re positive because you want to stay an extra 4 months, I wouldn’t be surprised either way especially with neighboring countries starting to open and the Covid extension already becoming more restricted.
If the TnG gets phased out this summer as that’s the intention the Covid extensions will almost certainly end.
I had a Covid extension last spring, went home, came back in November and got a Covid extension last month with no issue.
You might do some searching about where to go as it seems some immigration offices are a lot easier then others, in that case you would go stay a night or two in a hotel and apply there. Also be aware if they have you an “under consideration” stamp you would have to go back to that office when they say.