Do yourself a favor and never look at forecasts. Just accept that it is what it is. Focus your effort on finding a broker that will facilitate exchange with the tightest spread and lowest fees - that is actually a productive use of your time.
You could use onwardticket.com - for 15$ they will book a real ticket for you and cancel it 48 hours later. It's perfect for return flight tickets to show immigration when you enter the country. I am not exactly sure if it would work for you in this instance as the 48 hours window may be too short for your use case, but you never know.
I was never asked for hotel booking either. I think the type of questions depends on the climate in the country. In January a border agent was grilling me for "staying long" (no overstaying, just extending my visa) and I had to convince him to let me in. In April they were giving me a hard time because I didn't have an onward ticket. Three days ago they let me in, no questions asked, and gave me 60 days on the stamp. 🤷♂️