What factors are causing the Thai Baht exchange rate to decline rapidly?

Aug 1, 2024
3 months ago
Mark *******
ORIGINAL POSTER
What's happening to the exchange rate seems to be falling fast . I just looked at the forecast it says in 6 months it will be down to 42 😐
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TLDR : Answer Summary
The recent decline of the Thai Baht's exchange rate has raised concerns among expats and investors. Community members attribute the fluctuations to various factors, including the UK interest rate decisions affecting GBP:THB rates, market speculation, and currency manipulation. Some predict the Baht may drop to 42 THB per USD in six months, while others emphasize the inherent volatility of exchange rates. Discussions include the impact of inflation on local consumer prices, especially for pensioners, and the overall economic conditions in Thailand. Suggestions include locking in rates for future transactions and a general warning against relying on financial forecasts, as currency rates are subject to rapid changes.
Mark *******
ORIGINAL POSTER
Why swiss francs ?
Adolar **********
You‘ll find many „forecasts“ which show exactly the opposite. Buy Swiss Francs or Gold if you are afraid of fluctuations…
Jeff *******
Interest rates are falling, when rates fall, currencies fall, you ain't looking at 47 again for a very long time bar the thai economy crashing
Mike **********
I’m always laughing at travelers who are “concerned “

About exchange rates

The rates are determined by multi national banks and government policies.

There is nothing you can do about those rates

So stop stressing

Just go travel

Enjoy those travels

To even consider

?? Wow exchange rates seem to be volatile

? Should I or not travel because of that in my opinion is silly
John ********
Up & down like a brides nightie 😂😂😂😂
Clive *********
I just locked my exch rate today at around 45 baht for next 4 months with smart currency exchange in uk. Doesn’t matter what it does now
Thaimer ******
Since when do forex have “forecast” ?

It’s not weather
Nick **********
The centre cannot hold.
James *********
I hate when that happens at this time of the month 😠 (😂)
Barry ********
It's concerning for those looking to transfer significant sums in the near future
Ken ***********
@Barry *******
the Baht has been weak over the last two months. Hard to predict but those last two months were great times to exchange foreign currency into baht.
Barry ********
@Ken **********
agreed but the recent fall has happened virtually overnight with no signs of it stopping soon
Ken ***********
Henrik *****
Sorry my crystal ball is away for finetuning.
Philip *****
I remember 25 years I was I getting 78 baht to the pound
Ken ***********
@Philip ****
plus the cost of living was much fewer baht.
Philip *****
@Ken **********
wages were also lower but the pound still stretched further because 75 baht to the pound was a lot. It’s only because the Thai economy has grown that their currency has strengthened.
Mark ******
My guess would be Thai banks pumping money into the system to support the Baht as it is rising against all major currencies.
Chris ***********
Malaysian ringgit also dropping
Neville ************
Against which currency?.
Ken ***********
Mikolai ********
Do yourself a favor and never look at forecasts. Just accept that it is what it is. Focus your effort on finding a broker that will facilitate exchange with the tightest spread and lowest fees - that is actually a productive use of your time.
Todd *********
@Mikolai *******
which broker have you found for that?
Mikolai ********
@Todd ********
Interactive Brokers are really good. For everyday spending I just use Wise.com
Greta *****
Yes. It's a funny thing with exchange rate that it KEEPS CHANGING!
Hakim ************
Baht is inflated and he has been for the last 6 years. Other currencies fluctuate without any intervention from the government.
Jo **********
no its 38.4
Dave **********
Euro falling too.. nearly 40 not long ago. Now 38.6
James *********
@Dave *********
Same as USD
Mark *******
ORIGINAL POSTER
Obviously this is not guaranteed but a few weeks ago it was heading to near 47 . today it is 45 something so who knows what will happen
Bob **********
@Mark ******
it’ll definitely go up or down 😎😎😎
William ******
@Bob *********
that is the only thing we know for sure. If you watch it every day it will drive you crazy
Mark *******
ORIGINAL POSTER
Mark *******
ORIGINAL POSTER
Steven *******
Later today / tomorrow the rate will be better because of the expected rate drop later today.
Harry *********
To put it all into context , from 1993-mid 1997 it was at 38-41, from mid 1997-2008 it rose to 92 then fell towards 55 , from 2008-mid 2016 it was between 48-55 , then Brexit crashed it to 45 so from mid 2016 it was between 45 down to a low of around 38 in 2019 , from 2019 to now it has slowly crawled from 38 back up to its long term medium average of 46.75 , then in the past few days it’s crashed back sharply to 45.50 as a result of the usual Bank of England nerves ( they never support the currency unlike the Bank of Thailand who ensure the baht is forever strong ) and the rising gold price plus the BOT will not cut rates this year
William ******
Yeah looks like most currenties

Aussie dollar down 5.3%

UK 3.1% down

Euro 2.9% down

Dollar 3.5%

Canadian 4.4% down

UK is still higher than last year and took until February for it to get above 45. If anyone knew they would be rich from FX trading. In the past year all these currencies have dropped to these levels 2 or 3 times. My opinion which is not worth much is the current levels are more normal. The level one or two months ago were overly weak for the Baht. Let’s hope the increase in people visiting and moving doesn’t push up inflation and in turn will make Baht stronger both whammy. Look at Mexico for example. In the course of two years the peso appreciated 15-20% plus was battling 11% inflation. So within a short time period things were costing over 30%. So, I worry about Thailand being overrun. But Bali has same problem as a surge in people moving there but it currency is
*****
vs dollar. Three years ago was
*****
. So, 15% depreciation for Rupiah. But was told things are expensive in Bali. I have not been yet. We have many things going on right now. We had a time of 15 years no inflation. Now banks will be lowering rates. This effect currency, usually more short term. There an over reaction on the markets plus people making money on the news. Plus USA has huge debt which hurts the dollar. But for the world we have geopolitical things going on. Thailand is never involved usually in world events so other currencies can be effected. But I never see people complaining when Baht was weakening from March to June. If you take out those months we are back to were we were before (2023). If exchange worries you move to Cambodia. They use USD as much as Riel and riel doesn’t move a lot. But living outside your country currency changes is part of life. If you rate is in Baht take and prepay rent when Baht weaker. Take cash out of ATM for 3 months. All we know is it goes up and goes down. Not sure it is a straight down from here. Should stabilize in a week or two. Assuming no major events
David *******
Interest rate cut expected in U.K., if not this time then soon. Further cuts expected over next 12 months. Expect £ to fall against many currencies.

Against this is the perilous economic situation in Thailand and the baht being propped up by the central bank there.
Jason ********
Rate cuts = currency devaluation.

Basic economics 101
Julius *********
U.S. Democrat Programing. More Inflation coming as well, predicted. Fed will not drop rates, and now everyone is asking to be paid.
Richard ********
@Julius ********
Good grief. Can't we ever get away from the politics. Some things are not about Republicans versus Democrats. We come across the world to get away from it and hear this kind of stuff.
Wylie *******
@Julius ********
2016 to 2020 the USD to Baht lost about 20%. 2020 to now it gained about 20%. Has a long way to go to get back to where it was for most of the previous administration.
Kevin ********
@Julius ********
If your correct why am I getting a better exchange rate than last Dec. Trump got convicted and baht went up 4 percent. Keep beinh delusional trump trd
Edna *******
@Julius ********
could be in September.
Todd *********
Great news for Thai property owners as their valuations continue to go up. Bad news for pensioners, now everything cost 5% more than it did a month ago
Bruce *********
@Todd ********
My social security is $3,700 a month. This isn't really going to affect me much.
Todd *********
@Bruce ********
love the 🇺🇸 SS scheme! Show up to work for a few years and collect big for life. Awesome. 👏🏼

The USD is down 4.3% in the last 3 months which means your SS is worth about $160 less than it was in May. But you are right, not gonna make much difference.
Khun *****
@Mark ******
What "forecast" are you looking at?
Bob **********
Damn can you tell me where the dollar will be and while your at it what’s NVDA and Bit Coin going to be in 6 months,and you have a lot of faith in that change all you can now
Максим **********
🤪
Mark *******
ORIGINAL POSTER
@Bob *********
mmmmmm where should I start 555. I just saw that it has fallen in the last few days so looked at an amazing thing called the internet. It showed some interesting graphs and charts and also a few predictions. Very interesting reading
Bob **********
@Mark ******
that’s why everyone is rich,been here 15 years and its been up and down the whole time if your bringing visa monthly or spending it’s not going to change your life if your transferring big money I’d wait and watch
Duncanc **********
1% fall in western currencies overnight
Tim *******
and whenever has a "forecast" ever been wrong 🤪
Roman **********
Just wait for them to print the 10k/b per person and it will crash back down
Bruce ***********
Aussie dollar has plummeted
Stephen ********
Unlikely with BoT under pressure to reduce rates.
Jeffrey ************
Just the usual currency manipulation...
Jim ********
Get buying now then
Said *******
1$=42THB? Or was like that in late 90s
Russell *******
@Said ******
I think the poster is referring to UK pounds .
Ross *******
@Russell ******
right? But some people presume its about them for what reason? 42 should have been a hint
Russell *******
@Ross ******
Might have something to do with the new Mexican takeaway 🤔
Jack *******
@Ross ******
why? Do you think that’s the only currency in the world? Or that everyone just keeps an eye on the GBP?
Said *******
Oh...tnx
Dave *******
Uk interest rate decision affecting the GBP:THB apparently.
Andy ********
@Dave ******
Its not the UK interest rate the Thai baht is gaining on all currencies..... Japanese Yen too which was very low is picking up
Jeffrey ************
@Andy *******
Usual currency manipulation..
Paul ********
@Dave ******
Today Thursday UK.
John **********
@Paul *******
what s the rate today for the£
Jeffrey ************
@Dave ******
It's rising against all currencies.
Ian ********
@Jeffrey ***********
No its not the Australia rate has also dropped
Jeffrey ************
Jeffrey ************
@Ian *******
The aud has also fallen....
Wayne ********
@Jeffrey ***********
US $ down 1฿ this past week.
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