The probability of getting denied entry in Suvarnabhumi Airport depend entirely on your visa history/situation. So unless your situation is exactly the same as OP, the odds are not the same. Some people have basically 0% chance of ever getting denied entry.
I was not here yesterday so I don't know who said what. I've been giving him advice for weeks. The risk is still there but a lot less since last week new change. Also, there that thing called being "result oriented", for example, if there a 80% chance of rain, and it doesnt rain, doesnt mean the predictions were wrong, it just mean that day was part of the 20% chance of not rain.
He explained his situations many times over the last few weeks. He was at risk of rejection, but the law changed for the positive last week for people on Non-O regarding Covid Extension so the same apply for trying to enter Thailand. He got lucky but it's good karma. He was cautious and I don't blame him for it.
Started to ask questions weeks ago about his situation. I can only provide him up-to-date info based on when he ask his questions. Given his situation, he had a good chance to get rejected entry 2 weeks ago. But he entered this week... after the law changed, so he was no longer at high risk of getting denied. The new law allow people on Non-O to get Covid extension again, and that new level of tolerance toward people on long term visa also allow them to enter more freely in Suvarnabhumi Airport. This could change again next week... this is Thailand, authority flip-flop often. This is why when people ask when Thailand will re-open with no restrictions we can only estimate.
Yes, you are correct. A lot got rejected, but the law changed again last week, so it's even easy to get in from BKK now. Agent are back giving all sort of long term visa again.
Which story? The fact is that the new law was adopted last week, and since then people can get their Covid Extension from Non-O or come back into Thailand from having a Non-O fairly easily. I don't know which story you are referring to?
Last week the ban on Covid Extension for people on Non-O was reversed, it also greatly reduce the risk of getting denied entry in BKK. So yeah, in a way, people who came back since last week were lucky.
The application of the law changed again last week when Non-O Covid Extension became available again. So coming back into Thailand is getting easier again, although there is still risk.
Changing passport does not clean anything, but it prevent you from getting denied entry. It's the case since forever. Even pre-Covid when you go to Savannakhet you will get denied if it's your third tourist visa in a row... except if it's a new passport you will get it anyways. They are simply not enforcing whatever regulation with new passport.