I'm sure you do, there's many a theories out there on how to go about it. Some call it speculative art, or compare it to trading.. I monitor too..avoid booking on week-ends..middle of the night if I can, depending on time zone of airline hq..and try flying mid wk..but at the end of the day it's all a gamble, and theres many real time factors involved ( geopolitical, offer/demand, like 3rd parties buying bulk..or bogus etc) which u can't know about unless you work or have connections in the industry..but then you'd be getting such discounts you'd be out of the game anyways...
have to agree with David I always crosscheck with airlines directly but its rarely cheaper than 3rd parties. .. Tho I did a multi city 2 yrs ago NZ to L.A., then LA to Toronto then Montreal back to LA and onto NZ with 1 wk to a mth in each. And to my surprise got a better deal directly with United..tho most of it was code share..but still...
agreed..tho personally I've never had issues with 3rd parties (or maybe once in 20 yrs). When I booked early Feb for end of March, I completely underestimated how fast the shit show would snowball....but so did most of the world...live and learn...