What are the implications of the Baht's recent strengthening against the Euro?

Sep 26, 2024
3 months ago
Mike *****
ORIGINAL POSTER
Whats your opinion about the strong Baht?

Couple of months ago it was almost 39 B/ Euro. Now on the way to 36 B/ Euro.

I know it is all speculations, but where will it end? Got the feeling it will go down even more to 34-35.
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TLDR : Answer Summary
The conversation revolves around the appreciation of the Thai Baht, which has strengthened against the Euro, dropping from nearly 39 Baht to the Euro to around 36 Baht. Opinions vary on the implications of this currency movement, with some commenters highlighting potential negative effects on Thai exports and local businesses while others suggest benefits for those earning in Baht. Several participants mention the unpredictable nature of currency fluctuations and speculate on future trends, linking them to interest rate cuts in Western countries and calls for the Thai Central Bank to intervene. Overall, the discussion reflects the complex interplay between currency market dynamics and economic realities in Thailand, particularly for expatriates navigating financial changes.
Jimmy ******
Lot of Chinese money flowing in. I don’t expect the baht to get weaker anytime soon. Plus western banks cutting their interest rates so western currencies will be getting lower as investors look for better returns elsewhere
Claude **********
Thailand will do like Mexico Iremener M
Dover **********
Dover **********
it’s always up and down, legendary for it
James *********
Then maybe it's a good time to buy 😉
Dave *******
It's not a good situation for Thai exports is it
Colin *********
Life must be boring if you've got to create a conversation on Facebook about something you can't do anything about
Mike *****
ORIGINAL POSTER
@Colin ********
life must be boring taking the time to tell this...
Pitt *******
Always before high seasone drop down,till to 31-32.
Greg ******
Great for Thais that purchase foreign products.

Sucks for me.
Steve *******
I remember when it was 25, 34,35 seems to be the average on a long-term basis
Frank ********
@Steve ******
pce just came in at 8:30 am
Frank ********
@Steve ******
pce comes in cool, chance of 50 in Nov increases. Dollar will continue to weaken.
Jean-Michel *********
FED cut interest rate by 0.50% and another cut is planned in November.

They said it is to fight against inflation. Strange from decades we hear that to fight inflation interest rates have to increase.

Bad news expected. The big crash is coming....
Jeff *******
@Per ********
which modelling software are you using? However just to make this interesting I’ll bet you 1m baht, the S&P and the Nasdaq will be higher on Dec 31st next year than it is now - I’ll even pay for a lawyer to make it legally binding - are we on?
Jeff *******
@Per ********
lol of course you do, look forward to it, got a feeling I won’t be hearing from you again! How long you been predicting a crash now ? hoping the law of averages comes to your rescue? But enough of generic crap, give us a list of what you are shorting right now..
Per *********
@Jeff ******
Do this now

✅ bookmark

✅ screenshot

Lets revisit this post next time in late 2025 😉
Per *********
@Jeff ******
shorting in a bull market is incredible stupid

Yes I have tons of parameters backing my thesis

Yes I will come back to you

I know my shit. Do you? Well your words tells me everything
Jeff *******
Per Diamantlol 25 years in the City and retired early on the proceeds, I know a little. So the world is about to collapse and you’re shorting nothing? It’s riskier but you said you do this for a living - first rule of investing, always go with your gut
Per *********
@Jean-Michel ********
Big crash around’ish
*******


But until then we’ll get a soaring bull market. Now is the worst time for a bearish mindset
Per *********
@Jeff ******
please bookmark this post or take a screenshot. I’ve done the same and will approach you the coming years to ask you “who’s laughing now”

PS I do this for living. What’s your story?
Jurgen ********
Look at the “bright” side…. Wine & western food is supposed to get cheaper …😊 but who believes in that😵‍💫🤔😆😆😆?
Todd *********
@Jurgen *******
almost impossible to see how you came up with that…
Ian *********
the £ is up but not against the bhat heheh, work it out for your self
Joshua *********
Will keep going down and even worse thailand pricing might even go up.
Andrew ********
sucks. It costs so much more to send my 65,000b monthly.
Todd *********
@Andrew *******
it’s a good example. Sending 65k baht would now cost 6500 baht more than it did 3 months ago
Mike *****
ORIGINAL POSTER
Paul ********
@Andrew *******
ouch, Difficult to live well these days on that.
Curt ********
I remember when it was 30-32.
Chris *********************
Back in the day I can remember getting between 55 to 60 to the £

don't think that will happen again.
Marco ********
EUR and USD are weak. 1 BTC =
*****
65 THB
Greta *****
I heard it started to go to the gym and bulk up some muscles. That's how it got strong
Jon ********
What goes up comes down…can’t time it.
Carlo ********
The targhet will be the lowest of recently history. 31,50. Loking the usd wat will happen in the near future
Clint *********
Clint *********
Clint *********
Clint *********
The next 30 days
Jason ***********
The dollar and especially even my.ua currency is on the decline, sadly. Best to invest in crypto now. Is will provice you the best Gains over the next yeat
Kace *******
@Jason **********
i think crypto is a scam
Jason ***********
@Kace ******
you should probably do your research
Kace *******
@Jason **********
maybe you should
Jeff *******
@Kace ******
nope it’s definitely you that needs to do some reading. 5 years 714%, 1 year 142%, since inception a hundred dollars would have made you a multi multi millionaire, got anything to top that?
Jason ***********
@Kace ******
I'm an expert. I do quite well thank you.
Frank ********
Based on Euro to Baht that is over a 7% decline based on Dollar to Baht it is over a 12% decline. Both the Euro and Dollar have declined. Germany economy is weakening and the interest rates are going lower. in US interest rates are going lower so both currencies can be expect more weakling.

Don’t expect Baht to weaken during the high season, country needs all the reserve currencies. The Fires in Brazil hurt the sugar industry, so if Thailand can harvest record amounts of sugar expect the baht to stay strong.
Duncan *******
It depends on what the Bank of Thailand does with interest rates - would suspect there will be a 25-50bps cut before the end of the year.
Neil *******
It is what it is!
Albert *******
All currencies rise and fall as so their economies. The baht can’t rise much further , just like any country’s currency around the world , as this would destroy their exports as international vendors would avoid buying their once cheap products . Eventually central banks will “intervene “ and bring the exchange rate of the currency lower again. Maybe over the course of a year ..
Christopher *******
It typically falls during the high seasons. I suspect 33-34 by then.
David ******
Xmas will hit a low spot. I made the mistake of not getting some Baht for dollar in my last visit. I was lazy and ran out of time.
Dave ********
Thai government will cut rates in October
Duncan *******
@Dave *******
the government would love to, but they dont control rates

*********************************************************************************************************
*****
5-bot-governor-defends-rate-policy-amid-govt-pressure
Per *********
Thailand is kind of different for most countries. The money supply has been significantly lower than most countries.

This creates a positive consequence when looking comparing the currency to other currencies. Because they’re debasing the currency much less

The only country that is not debasing its currency is Switzerland. But actually Thailand comes in as the second best out of all the currencies I’ve on my daily radar
Per *********
Here’s the Thai money supply since the covid crash in 2020. I use the covid crash for all my benchmarks

Thailand increased the money flow with only 24% over that period
Roushonul ********
@Per ********
Thai tourism wouldn’t perform good this year. Their car manufacturing plant is getting reduced, household debt sky high. 2nd hand first hand all product market not performing okay.

But what is in their favour is due to high interest rate money getting pushed to their bond and stock market. Let’s see how long honeymoon last. I will buy some usd in a hope that next year I can get back from some loss.
Jeff *******
@Roushonul *******
the dollar will be under pressure for a significant time to come - they are approaching default territory! Bitcoin will take up the slack.
Per *********
@Jeff ******
exactly 👍🏼
Per *********
@Roushonul *******
the USD is in a year long bearish downtrend. You ain’t seen nothing yet
Per *********
@Roushonul *******
you’re not getting the point my friend

But you do you…
Frank ********
@Per ********
much smaller country
Per *********
@Frank *******
Country size is irrelevant 🤷‍♂️

I’m following these macro economics on a daily basis. And I’m watching many countries

Once US starts the M2 money supply then the rest of the world will follow suit

China just turned on their money printer this week. Take a look at the chine stock market
Per *********
Here the US equivalent for the same period. It’s 10% higher
Steven *******
Eventually, Thailand will need to raise interest rates, then the baht will lower.
Jeff *******
@Steven ******
wrong way round, obviously currencies weaken when interest rates are falling as it puts off investors. With significant western cuts on the horizon you’ll be dreaming of 43 baht to GDP this time next year.
Irvin ******
This is why the G came out with the 5 years DTV.

Since the BOT is not under the control of the Thai G of the day and with inflation at sub-1% still refuses to reduce the interest rate, what do you expect?

Look at VND & IDR, why they keep softening against USD & EUR?

One of the reason why more & more people are leaving Thailand for other SEA countries.
Steve **********
.
Steve **********
Banks playing games again.

Nit one article true

banks say stable at 33.5 to 33.65, when it's 32.39, was projected to be 36.5
Ross *******
Reminds me alot of 2019. Historic data will tell you how many times we have seen this. Its alot in the past 30 years. That high we just experienced was nice but it pendulums
Anthony ****
Over the last five years, the highest and lowest levels for the USD/THB exchange rate were:

Highest: Around 39 per USD in October 2022.

Lowest: Around 29.83 THB per USD in December 2020.

I'm watching 30 as the first key downside level and resistance around 34.

Good luck 👍
Aek *****************
@Anthony ***
Thank you for your technical analysis. I absolutely agreed with it.
Frank ********
@Anthony ***
I am looking at the jobs market and inflation in the US instead of exchange rates high and lows.

The baht rate is at 2.65

Dollar is at 4.75 much more downside risk for dollar.
Steve **********
@Anthony ***
never saw a 39 in past 5 year...tickled 37, Was 28.5 for a couple of days.

Whe I moved from US it was about 45.
Matthew **********
Thailand doesn't have to pay for countries with a weaker economy unlike some EU countries. So it will probably get worse. Same as the last 20 years for Euro V Baht. I say it factually, not judgementally.
Frank ********
@Matthew *********
on the bright side the dollar is down over 12% to the baht. We pay more for other weaker economies. Ex. the US will be paying to rebuild Gaza.
Carey *********
It always fluctuates
Todd *********
@Carey ********
😂😂😂 great tip lol. Does it ‘always’ fluctuate 10% in 3 months? No Carey, it sure doesn’t
Tin **********
Sell
Scott ************
The bhat is very expensive around Christmas season I've found I believe it's probably on purpose due to the high tourist season
Randy ******
I AM RUINED ! Can’t wait till January 25
Jacques *****
It always bounces around the same area every year.
Jurgen ********
@Jacques ****
🤔 a 9% increase of baht a bounce? Hope you are right, most of us want a weaker baht😊
Todd *********
@Jurgen *******
I don’t think J is really paying attention
Jacques *****
@Todd ********
i looked at every year since 2015. You can do the same.
Todd *********
@Jacques ****
I have, but in doing so, I learned things. You can do the same
Billy ******
Yes, in July and August I was getting 47 to the GBP, it’s now just under 44, pre Covid it was down to 37 at one point. I’m still happy getting 44.
Kevin *******
@Billy *****
I remember 74 ! The good old days that's when I bought my condo !
Billy ******
@Kevin ******
bloody hell, 74! I think 54 is the best I remember 😀
Kevin *******
@Billy *****
it was 72 but because I had to transfer 50k pounds I got a better rate ! Also my mate came over from working in Oman and was thinking about buying in the same condominium whilst he was thinking about the yanks shafted the thai economy and that went up to 98 baht to the pound from 50 baht so he got his condo half price jammy bugger !
Dave **********
It was at one point 39.89
Steve **********
That British pound ?

Boy has world turned !
Dave **********
@Steve *********
no the Euro.
Steve **********
@Dave *********
oooh !

typically if it's not US related, US expats dont understand.

90% of US has never seen foreign currency.
Steve **********
@Dave *********
when ? I watch and record daily, oh and I don't drink !
Lothar *************
@Steve *********
you could just look at the chart 😁
Petri ********
@Steve *********
4th of June this year it was 39.94 .
Dave **********
Steve **********
Ok, I lied, I drink !
Dave **********
@Steve *********
about 5 to 6 weeks ago. I get a notification every day
Steve **********
@Dave *********
don't know why, but a life practice of keeping a journal.

Retired here now 21 years still keep, weather, baht, major events etc .

B/ US has gone from 28 to 46 in range over my time.
Chris *********
It’s supers glued 43-47 baht to the £

How the hell it’s stays so strong it’s begged to believe.
Todd *********
@Chris ********
if the UK wasn't such a complete economic dog, it would be stronger. Voter apathy or stupidity has reached pandemic levels lol
Frank ********
@Chris ********
England has not cut rates yet.
Frank ********
@Chris ********
I would disagree with dire straits. (Money is for nothing and the Chicks are free) only if you’re in a rock and roll band 😊.
Tim ********
@Chris ********
it's strong because Europe, USA, UK economies are in dire straits. Interest rates dropping and printing money is here again.
Peter **********
@Chris ********
especially as the personal debt here is at an all time high. fail to understand it.
Frank *********
Let’s be honest

Even if the euro and USD is say 30-1 ?

We are still winning bro…

I wouldn’t sweat it too much 🙏
Frank ********
@Frank ********
it’s all relative. A 12% reduction in purchasing power on my Dollars, puts me on the sideline for any large purchases.
Kenny *****
@Frank ********
by alot less.
Todd *********
The strength of the baht is pummelling some western currencies and seems poised to run further. If you haven’t bought over your next year or two of expenses, now may be the time
Jurgen ********
The baht had reached even 40/Euro briefly. I follow the move closely since November last year when baht was around 38.

Economy is not great, the prime minister changed, therefore baht should not have gained approx 9% as of today.

However most, if not all Asian currencies became stronger ag Euro and USD but what a noticed, and it might be a coincidence, the baht increased daily since the DTV was introduced and, what I hear, a lot of foreigners from all over the world have been approved…. those people have bought the baht for sure.

A visa exempt tourist needs a relatively small cash amount but DTV approved guys need money for 180 days!

Just my thoughts and yes, Thailand cannot afford a strong baht but will, or better, can they do something against it?

It’s a free currency market, offer and demand rule it.

I wouldn’t put too much hope in the BOT😱
John ********
@Jurgen *******
you’re joking. A few people buying a visa has nothing to do with exchange rates.
Luit *****************
@Jurgen *******
Nice theory about the DTV, but I do not think suddenly a lot more people come to Thailand, and up to this moment they did not really spend much more than visa exempt tourists.

And yes, offer and demand decide about the exchange rate, but for example interest percentage has quite a lot of influence on offer and demand.
Steve ********
Who cares, only peasants do🤓
Us *****
Like regular Thai people, they will be slow and lazy to act. The strong baht will weaken demand for condo and big purchase items. The economy is already struggling and this will send them to a recession. The need to drop their interest rate next week.
Karim ***************
@Us ****
bad for exports too…
Craig ********
@Us ****
The Thai economy is in pretty good shape actually. And although a strong THB decreases demand for local real estate and Thai exports, it makes imports cheaper and is good for people who earn their money in THB either through work in Thailand or through owning businesses that sell goods and services in THB.
Us *****
@Craig *******
Thailand is always an exporter of goods, so it makes their stuff more expensive. A stronger baht is not good for them. Also, they are not hitting their tourism numbers this year. The Chinese economy is struggling. It is pathetic that the government has to give 10k baht starting this week to struggling individuals to simulate the local economy. For sure, I know they are selling bonds to give out the 10k per person. They are giving money they don't have in their budget.
Craig ********
@Us ****
Thai people better figure out Bitcoin fast.
Craig ********
@Us ****
yes stronger thb means exports more expensive and imports less expensive. Good for some, bad for others, depends on what kind of business you are in. In general the Thai economy is doing fine.

As far as the THB giveaway, it's not necessary at all. The economy does not need it, and in fact it's going to be very bad for the economy as it will drive inflation.

I don't think the giveaway has anything to do with the economy I think it's the implementation of a CBDC, disguised as a stimulus package.
Us *****
@Steve *******
you have no idea what you are talking about. It is the opposite, it matters to the well off. If you want to buy a condo or a nice sports car, you will pay 10-15% more now compared to 6 months ago because of a weak dollar. And 10-15% for a couple million baht matters.
Eric ******
@Us ****
exactly. I figure from 2 months ago until now, the USD has lost about $150 per $1000 exchanged! That's a big hit, especially if you're having to put $800,000 baht in an account for a retirement visa...that's upwards of $2500 USD. Even on a $100/ night hotel room, that's roughly $12-$15 extra per night. That sh!t adds up over time, especially if you add $220 baht to it from withdrawal fees from ATMs. 🤦🏻‍♂️🤬
Charles **********
With the USA expected to lower interest rates over the next few years the baht is likely to continue to strengthen. That’s called the Interest Rate Parity Theorem. I expect basic economics to continue to apply.
Greg ********
@Charles *********
what is the outlook for interest rates in thailand?
Charles **********
@Greg *******
no idea 🤷🏼‍♂️. I don’t follow the Thailand markets
Alfred *****
Businesses in Thailand and even the Thai government have been asking their Central Bank to rein in the baht as it's appreciating too much, but the Central bank governor feels that there's no need to do anything at the moment, hence the strong baht !
Ron ********
We will survaivle...!
Greg ***********
the US Dollar and Euro will get back up against the Baht. It's another hickup, I assume. But don't you take my werdz for granted, dude
Luit *****************
@Greg **********
maybe, but what is going on since July 12th never happened before in the last 5 years. Without one exeption all weeks closed lower for USD and EUR than the week before.

If you look at the 5 year chart it looks unnatural, something is being manipulated somewhere
Brett **********
@Luit ****************
like US interest rates going down for for the first time in over 4 years perhaps? Or you could make a conspiracy theory out of it instead
Luit *****************
@Brett *********
US interest rates do not go down every week again. THB exchange rates are going up against most other currencies every week again without a single exception, without any visible reason. A normal pattern would be reacting on visible events, and then at least corrections every now and then, but it just is one straight line.
Brett **********
@Luit ****************
it's at pretty much the same rate as it was in January. I hate to break this to you but currencies fluctuate
Luit *****************
@Brett *********
Yes, currencies fluctuate, but fluctuate means going up and down. And in this case already over 10 weeks only one direction, so no fluctuation anymore. This never happened before for such a long time. And the current rate absolutely is not like January this year, February 2022 was the last time it was about this exchange rate.
Greg ***********
@Luit ****************
maybe, and maybe not
Nigel *******
The trends your friend until you hit the bend
Chip *****
It’s cyclic. On source (forget where) says October and April tend to be the highs.
Declan **********
@Chip ****
however businesses, government entities and the alike are asking the central bank of Thailand to step in as it's appreciating too rapidly
Ross *******
Mark ********
It swings in roundabouts. Up down up down up...
Kevin *******
39 was good for you, average always been about 34 !
Kevin *******
@Mark *******
I'm pretty sure it's seesaws that go up and down ! Its roundabouts that go round a nd round
Brandon ************
If anyone knew they'd be rich from investing in forex
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