Out of idle curiosity is there any realistic estimate regarding the amount of people who will run out of Visa on 31st July 2020
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TLDR : Answer Summary
The conversation speculates on the estimated number of foreigners in Thailand whose visas would run out on July 31, 2020, with estimates ranging from 50,000 to 100,000 people. Participants discuss the implications of the visa amnesty brought about by COVID-19 and express concern over the potential for immigration enforcement changes. Various viewpoints are presented regarding the nature of the expats affected, with some arguing that many are long-term residents facing economic hardships, while others view it as a matter of tourists overstaying. There are also discussions on potential solutions and the economic impact of these foreigners on the Thai economy.
NON-O RETIREMENT VISA RESOURCES / SERVICES
Go to the Retirement Visa Section for information on requirements, including age restrictions, financial requirements, and necessary documentation.
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p.s you can all use this link to try and keep up to date, its set to the last 24 hours with search terms 'thailand amnesty' you can download a chrome tool which will also alert you on keywords too FYI.
I have no idea. Likely nobody else in this site does either. However,
News reported 4000 ExPats in Pattaya currently. I live in Pattaya and most of the Expats I encounter are retirees. I assume they are here without benefit of Amnesty. Maybe as many as 1000 (generous) people here benefit from Amen sty.
If Pattaya is representative of other expat popular locations (Phuket, Changmai, etc). I would say there are fewer than 10,000 expats in Thailand by benefit of Amnesty.
Keep in mind -- A) very crude calculations.
B) I assume places like Hua Hin are mostly retirees. Places like Bangkok are mostly working stiffs. Both are here without benefit of Amnesty.
Ryan *************
from a poster on here, wont state his name as he might not want me too. Looks fairly promising for the 31st lot though - do note this is purely speculation and not confirmed yet. Cheers
Paul ********
Migrant workers alone in Chonburi is 400,000 plus all the other people not from Asia
7 days is not enough for all the foreigners to leave
My girlfriend is from Loa and still trying to find out a way
- did your lady fly in to Thailand or land border crossing ?
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James ***************
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John **********
We are stuck in the UK dont know when we can come back. My Thai wifes UK visa extention ends 31st July have to see what happens. We miss our home and friends
you should try explaining that, and WHY, to the ‘very entitled’ members in the 2pricethailand group, complaining about land ownership etc. This is Thailand, they answer to nobody, ever, and could ask us all to leave whenever they feel like it. Kicking us on the way out 😂
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Dan ********
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James ***************
One media story from only one immigration boss and lots of people panic. Do not believe everything you read. Wait for Government Announcements.......
Then panic! ....
Joe ***********
I have a Non Imm B Multi-Entry One Year Visa - which requires a 90 day Exit and Reentry. I am the Managing Director and Share Holder of a Thai Registered Company... I cannot change Visas or reason for an Extension. I need a Border Run... but current conditions prevent this from happening.
- off course not - this is Thailand.....the media here love to spin things and get the reaction that gets many comments - good for advertising - panic = money earner for immigration as I am sure many long time expats will understand - so what is your prediction ?
- It is not any media spinning things - it is total lack of direction and proper clarification by Thai Immigration that is causing the discord and turmoil. We have 17-18 days left before the deadline and Thai Immigration has said Nothing - except for the One so called Spokesman who said very definitively that 'We need to clear everybody out'. Since those words were uttered - Nothing - Nada, Zero, Zilch, mâi-mii-à~rai has been said by any Thai Official relative to the Amnesty ending and what will happen.
- yes I agree - but go agent/immigration now and you can get 90 days extension (25k) or volunteer visa one year 50k - panic = money for immigration and agents
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James ***************
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Bim *******
I find some of the comments here lack compassion or empathy from those who are fortunate enough that there visa status is sorted making disparaging comments. Not all on the Amnesty are tourists taking a free ride. Those tourists will have homes and jobs they desperately need to get back too but unable to do so because the country's airports have been more or less in lockdown since March. I know of a few. There are migrant workers unable to get back home because the borders are closed with no work in Thailand. There are people like me that after 7 years of living here legally in order to get a retirement visa need to border bounce that under normal circumstances would be no problem but unable to do so and as of next week are on the Amnesty and desperately needed it to be extended until the flights and borders are back to normal and causing untold stress.
If they suddenly end the Amnesty with less than three weeks notice it will be a huge PR disaster for this country unless what some believe if the governments agenda is to want to clear out Westerners once and for all I can promise you even your so called safe visas at some point they will come after you making extensions of stay almost impossible. Even Thailand Elite have stopped taking applications so what does that say about how safe your visas are.
Joe ***********
If you are not affected by this Amnesty ending - Why are you here?
Joe ***********
Anyone talking on this thread whose status inside Thailand is Unaffected by this Amnesty deadline - should just Shut the Fuck Up and Get a Life
I belive your wrong. It's not a PR nightmare. Ending of the amnesty on July 30th has been known for months. It's not like they have never told anybody when it will end.
The only airport that had been in total lockdown was Phuket. But has since resumed operating. Yes there may not be easy flight options available. But there are options and they do cost money. If you don't have the money then you need to contact your embassy to get a loan to get the ticket paid for. It is life. It may not be fair. But what does complaining about it accomplish?
When did Thai Elite stop accepting applications? I just got my approval letter the beginning of this week. It took 20 days.
I have the reply from Thailand elite no application for two months only yesterday. My own circumstance is nothing to do with money. The borders are closed. Not one knew the amnesty would end or presumed so because there has been no announcement. And notice you didn't address the overwhelming majority are migrant workers unable to even consider getting back home. They can't simply fly out.
I disagree with you. Everyone knew the amnesty was ending on the 30th. But we all did ourselves a disservice not realizing that the end date is the 30th. It's been that date for months. Just because many people thought or hoped they would do more doesn't change the fact that the end date has been published since amnesty was issued.
Sorry to hear that Thai elite is stopping applications. I think that there is a connection between that and the leaked information that happened this last week.
everyone knew? No one knew only the government. How you expect people to leave even when borders are closed. Well if I had a point to prove you a shining example of proving it.
yes everyone knew that amnesty ends on July 30th. You understand that is what they stated when it was started. That is a published end date.
Proving what kind of point? I am trying to get people to wake up to reality. I myself was thinking that oh they will extend or give a path or whatever until the last few days. And it finally sunk in that oh..... It is going to end and they told us it was going to end months ago.
If your home country is not letting you come back to your home country then you need to talk to your embassy. Why is it thailands responsibility to take care of a non citizen who can't go home. That particular citizens embassy should be taking care of it.
You have always been allowed to leave thailand. By land maybe. By air absolutely.
I don't know of any single country that has denied thier citizens entry to their country. That's just ignorance.
a Booking available on a website is a VERY different thing than an actual plane flying. U would have to have been deep underground last 4 months to not be aware of that
yes there is. None of you can see it because your all waiting for a hand out instead of being an adult and going to talk to immigration or a visa agent.
Sad to say the plan was for everybody to go deal with immigration or a visa service or make plans of some sort before the 31st of July.
Lol. What is clear is that there is much dissension within the govt about how to proceed. And a multitude of factors and down the road impact to include (these appear quite lost on you).
No real need to have any concern until the announcement is made. Just relax and enjoy the beach/pool. There are always options
this just makes me laugh. Ur ‘using logic’ 😂😂😂 We do NOT what the rules are yet. Nobody does. So anyone with an ounce of logic would think 🤔 huh, before we start playing the game, let’s see what the rules are first...
what you say is quite ironic. 4 immigration officers at 2 different offices have told me to wait and see what decision is made. Yet, you say that this is the worst advice that anyone could give and, at the same time, advise that people should talk to immigration. You realy dont have a clue.
they also told me I would not be forced to leave if the borders were still closed. I do not expect anything to which I am not entitled but what I am entitled to us not currently available. Same for many people so I beleive they will make it available at a cost which is fair enough.
absolutely I have no problem paying for it. Money isnt the issue this is my home for the last 7 years and many dogs rely on me. Dont want anything for free
I love the dogs here. They are what dogs should be. Not like the stupid creatures in the UK that just irritate the life out of anyone they dont belong to.
Nick ************
Then I am off to the coast to spend some of the money i saved during lockdown. Even if it is Wales.
I have applied logic to the situation after obtaining as much information as possible from many sources. I am not a gambling man but I would put money on the fact that no one on amnesty will be forced to leave on July 31st. A lot of money is changing hands right now and that will be allowed to continue to the last minute. A lot of money will be lost if we are forced to leave and it wont happen. They can make more money out of us yet, and I am ok with that, and they would be foolish to lose the opportunity. The Thai people are not fools.
I should add that i have packed my bag today just in case!
I agree. Nobody gonna be forced out to destinations unknown on July 31. EVERY nation on earth is facing the same problem at this time. People in their countries that now either cannot or don’t wish to go home. And with the world of travel options available very much restricted now, each needs a plan to deal with the people internally. There will be a gateway open for us in some way shape or form built into the next announcement. And even if the most extreme situation is everyone ‘kicked out’ lol, another country will open its doors to 100k ‘fleeing’ Covid-free, money spenders! I’m just having some Prosecco and enjoying another great day of amnesty
thai tourism minister should be loudly advocating for a six month 20k baht ‘ride out Covid safely in Thailand’ plan to start the day after amnesty ends. Many, many people don’t wish to go ‘home’ and happy to pay for a ‘safe passage’ visa here in the Kingdom 🇹🇭
that would do me just fine . No need to pay for it until you leave meaning no rush to immigration. I would probably spend 10 times that here in 6 months. People from outside Thailand could be asked for
*****
baht to do the same thing after thorough testing and quarantine. Quite an easy way to make money realy.
yes I'm a foriegner. Good catch. I am living here with my wife. Married well before covid. I have already sorted my visa issues. Not difficult. I had my options and choose. But I was not going to wait until the last minutes.
I am surprised you are still here. For many people the only options they were left with were go home or stay here on amnesty. All their usual pre covid options were lost. You are a lucky boy?
no not lucky. I was not gaming the system. I was using a multi entry tourist visa as I worked out of the country. I did my research and had four options. Marriage visa, Ed visa, Thai elite,get a job in thailand.
Marriage visa I needed paperwork from the embassy that's not available. So that's not going to work.
Ed visa. Pay a chunk for an ed visa and learn thai.
Thai elite. Pay a huge chunk and not have an issue for years
Get a job. Ah sure. But nobody is needing what I am skilled with in thailand at the moment.
Not luck. I explored and talked about my options with agents and immigration. And made my decision.
again you say a lot but give no useful information to anyone. Oh, and I am not surprised that Thailand has no need for what you are skilled in. In fact from the talent you have shown in your numerous comments i would doubt that anyone would be interested anywhere. I am waiting in feverish anticipation if your next instalment that I hope will enlighten everyone as to what choice you have made.
the borders have been in complete lockdown. My friend here tried 4 times to change his flight back to the UK and 4 times it was cancelled by Eva. He finally got a confirmation yesterday for 2nd August. My home is here. I have lived here 7 years. Retirement visas are not available in county. You can't border bounce. It's Thailands responsibility to take into account every person's need in a time when they themselves closed the borders.
false. You have been able to leave thailand. You are not locked into this country PERIOD! Just because other countries say you can't come in if you are a foreigner is not thailands responsibility or fault.
Do I think that the government is think about those that are long term visa holders that are required to do border runs in order to renew thier visas. Yes. But people need to prepare for that to turn into a no for what ever reason.
In Thailand it is not useful to have expectations based on what officials said, they change their mind all the time. When someone important says they want to clear out foreigners, he is saying what the Thai people want to hear and also hoping most foreigners leave by themselves.
I have empathy for those who had to stay here by no fault of their own, and are doing the best they can to make arrangements. I have no empathy for people who think the are entitled to everything because they already lived here many years on a tourist visa, nor do I have empathy for those who wish ill on people who do have the right papers to stay here.
It unfortunate that we all seem to think there are only two groups. People on amnesty who are all entitled freeloaders who made no effort to leave and blame everybody for their problems. And fat retired old people who sit in a bar every day watching young girls while drinking beer. Both groups are more varied. 😄
I had not looked at it that way but you are right. If all those on amnesty many if whom have been supporting their communities through covid and able to continue doing so, are kicked out it will not be long before those with the correct stamp are targeted for eviction. The smirk will then disappear pdq.
I'd say the same somewhere between 50k and 100k. These people easily spending a 1,000 THB a day. It's the infuse that is keeping the dying tourist-industry alive. And now according to an "immigration-source" they want to clear them out, with no hopes on new tourists for the next 4 months. I think they will come to reason before the 31st. Probably just pay for an extension as the risk for contamination in Thailand has diminished.
with that money I wouldn't worry too much. Best thing look for a reliable VISA-agent they always know what's best for you. But money opens doors. I heard about an ED-visa in Hua Hin for which you don't have to leave the country. It does take a few weeks to process that though. On the other hand I do believe government will come with a solution for which you will have to pay, but that will be peanuts for you then. But at the moment it's all a bit unclear, eveyone is just guessing including immigration officers 😂😉.
thank you for your kind help ! Yes turns out a local school is able to process so we started that ball rolling end of may, just waiting on an appointment with immigration. This was in the plan pre-COVID, I just hadn’t chosen a location. I guess Covid did that at least. Interesting to see what the Thai immigration offer. I’ve only paid a deposit with the school so far. I’ll get the 5 yr Elite Visa in 30 moths time. If I still want it / need it.
i to have thought there will be a money grab. They will offer some one time amnesty visa program to extract more money from those wanting to continue to stay. I think the number is higher than 100,000 as the US Embessy estimated 40,000 USA citizens will be effected by the end of the amnesty.
thanks for the number Rob. Yeah I m just guessing about the numbers with what I do see on the streets. But I think we re on the same page in what we re expecting.
Your statement shows a lack of personal knowledge about the situation. Allow me to become a little personal to indulge you.
I have been living and working in Thailand for many years. 3 weeks ago I lost my job due to covid. Losing your job means losing you work-visa. I've been married with a Thai for 2 years but never bothered for the marriage-visa. So now I want to change to a marriage-visa, only problem my application only becomes valid by the end of August, so why I could do with an xtra month of visa-amnesty.
Having told you why I do have personal knowledge of the situation, let me tell you what isn't logic in your comment.
- the people relying on amnesty to live in Thailand stay home all day in their condos.
- 1st: it s illegal to rent condos to tourists. It does happen but it's rather rare. So they d be staying in hotels, resorts or the cheaper inns (still finding accomodation below 300 THB a night aint so easy). The majority will pay about 1,000 THB just for one night. Still having no means to cook for themselves, they will have to go to restaurants or take-aways.
- one of the reasons I love Thailand is the nightlife and how easy it is to get into a conversation with strangers. Since the 1st I have restarted my habit of going out and I see and meat a lot of stranded tourist spending a lot of money.
- these stranded tourists are Americans, English, Italians, etc, but also Russians, Indians, etc. Some get an allowance far higher than what you need to live of here, some get part of their salary doing part of their job back home online. The point is they spend a lot of money, none of it comes from Thailand.
- none of these stranded tourists (with some exceptions like me who await to transmit their visa in another valid non-o visa) would be eligible for non-o, non-oa or non-b visa. They just hope they can keep living like this untill the whole covid-mess clears up and then go back home where they have their house.
So to get back to my earlier point; between 50k and 100k people spending 1,000 THB a day. Just make the calculation is between 50 and 100 million THB a day or between 1,5 and 3 billion THB a month of foreign currency injected in the hardest hit sector of Thailand every fucking month. It's more than the aid-package from the government. There is no way they're going to loose that. Not now! The whole likely - unlikely show which is happening at the moment is in MY opinion a bit of pressure and power-game which is preparing the road for what comes next. A registration of who is here and an official amnesty-extension for which we will have to pay of course. Keeping the Thai economy alive isn t enough, the government wants her piece of the cake.
Just supported my opinion with clear arguments. Don t just give a prejudice about people that you don t know.
No one is paying 1,000 baht per day. the people relying on amnesty to “live” in Thailand stay home all day in their condos. Otherwise what’s the reasoning for not having a Non-B, Non-O or Thai Elite visa? Either you have family here, married, retired, or work here which means you’d have the correct visa otherwise what other reason do you have besides just wanting to hide out in Thailand because you don’t want to go back to America?
maybe some of us have decided they like it here and want to stay. Have you got a problem with that? The reasoning behind not having the correct Visa now is simply the fact that it is not possible to get one. In normal circumstances I would have returned to the UK, got the correct Visa and be back here by now complete with cash from a house sale.
Since when was it legal to live in a country without a visa? You’re pretty much trying to argue that you should be allowed to live in Thailand on an extension that was put in place to give people time to get a flight out. Can you name any other country in the world who allows this? I’m pretty sure if a foreigner goes to Europe, US, Japan or any other country you are allowed to stay there for 3 months before your time is up or figure out a way to live there long-term with a real reason such as working or marriage. If you’re able to get the correct visa in the UK, then what’s stopping you from going back there to get it?
you realy do not get it do you? You exist in your little bubble and criticise anyone who is outside it with no knowledge or interest in their circumstances. I find it quite astonishing that you are prepared to prove so much ignorance in a public forum. Do you not even understand that in the current situation if I returned to the UK for a Visa I would not be allowed back into Thailand for many months or maybe longer? That is why i have stayed here hoping that a way to extend my Visa would become possible as it would be in normal circumstances. Do you get it now.
it's been legal to live in Thailand without a Visa since a global pandemic swept the globe and travel became dangerous or impossible ( I thought you would have known that). I have no desire to live anywhere illegally but as you have completely ignored the point I made in my last post I fail to see any point in trying to explain it again.
1,000 a day is not a huge amount of money, I'm sure many spend that or more. Many people aren't old enough to get a retirement visa, aren't married and don't work, that's the reasoning.
there are a mix of people stuck here, some are "tourists", but many are people who "live" here. For example a lot of people on multi-entry non-immigrant visas (for marriage or work) that usually would have done a border run every 90 days. Other people who got to the end of a visa or were planning on getting another outside the country and now can't. Some are long stay tourist, on things like the METV, which you can usually get 9 months out of, but requires border bouncing.
if you are over 50 you only need to bring in 65K/month to qualify for a retirement extension so you would easily qualify for that.
If under 50 I think your best bet would be Elite, it starts at 500k for 5 years. You can transfer onto this from the amnesty.
I think in the short term there will be something done, at least for people who REALLY can't get home (may need embassy letter). But if you want to stay here long-term, those might be good options for you.
Yeah, and thank you, but I’m just 42. I have a reasonable understanding now. So I’m getting a Ed visa now., will extend that if I chose, then bounce around on tourist visas a while. That was the plan before COVID also ...👍
that's a good plan, I know some schools that can't normally do Ed visa in country can now as a special situation. I'd act on it quick though as it usually takes at least a month to process, so you'll probably be reliant on them coming up with some grace period after 31st if you start now anyway (but I think they will).
yes I was on that end May, so I should be called into immigration soon. But I’ll hold out as long as I can, just in case immigratoo offer something better !!
, what is your point and why are you annoying so many people with it?
Dan ********
Hi Mark, I don’t really have a point, just that the conversation was generally about farang SPENDING (justification for more visa extension perhaps ?) Much talk of 1000 baht daily, one gentleman suggested he’s spending 300 a day. I thought I’d share that my spending, and argue that we are not all poor, or broke. These lovely, kind, helpful gentleman, Ivan McAvinchey and Winand Delvaux kindly offered some advise, unaware that I am relatively resolved in my situation here, in that I’m enrolling in a language school. If I have annoyed anyone except you, who has not been so kind and helpful, I do apologise.
thanks mate, indeed the discussion about 1,000 THB was just to point out the illogic of "wanting to clear out" the people on amnesty. 1,000 THB is a low estimated average but makes it easy calculating the proportion of money it s injecting in the Thai economy.
These forums or groups on fb are meant for people to help each other. As a community we should help each other, together we know more and weigh significantly on the Thai economy. Unfortunately are these groups and forums seriously infected by trolls, who often don t even live here and use every opportunity to lash out to Thailand or the people living here.
I don t get it why though, guess some anger-issues or something.
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Winand *********
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Borja *********
1,000 thb a day can be average only for hotel, or acomodation...